It seems that all is not well with the foundational elements of U.S. economic growth. Recognizing that GPD is still positive, and it's likely to stay that way this quarter, how much longer can it last, given that the U.S. real GDP income statement is hemorrhaging?
Gross domestic income (GDI) is defined by the BEA as; "the incomes earned and the costs incurred in the production of gross domestic product (GDP)." So the curious question brought up in the chart below is, how much longer can real GDP stay positive when real GDI has been negative for the last two quarters? Government data is "interesting" these days, but my guess is not for much longer. This would be the first time since WWII where real GDI contracted for two quarters and real GDP did not follow that same path. The yield curve inversion that began last July, predicting economic contraction beginning around this July (based on average lead times between inversion and recessions starts), is still looking prescient.
