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Home    April 23, 2014
    
 
 
Financial News
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2014 Federal Reserve Meeting Calendar
January February March April May June
28/29   18/19 29  30 17/18
July August September October November December
29/30   16/17  28/29   16/17
  
 
 

1/13/14: This is my weekly leading risk index.  Note the most recent significant periods of risk identified (well in advance) by this index: the great recession starting in 2007 and the European crisis in 2011.  As you can see, we are now entering another period of elevated, significant risk.  The good news is it appears to be a brief event and secondarily, it should be resolved by summer.  There is nothing recessionary here but my guess is the markets have hedged for the Fed's change on its monetary stance (reducing its bond buying program) over the coming months. This period of "risk-off" should actually help stabilize bond yields over the next couple months.

Sincerely,

Mr. Partial Doom and Gloom

 
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